Estimation of the propagation factor R0 of the COVID-19 using the Kermack-McKendrick model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24197/st.1.2022.257-272Keywords:
infected, recovered, spread, mitigation, epidemiological threshold.Abstract
Abstract: The SIR epidemic model is useful to measure the speed of spread of the COVID-19 infection in terms of the epidemiological threshold R0 over time. An ordinary differential mathematical model was developed to measure the behavior of COVID-19 in Peru, based on the experience in the control of Kermack – McKendrick infections. The rate of infected β and of recovered or eliminated γ was also estimated, using the official data sets of the World Health Organization, starting from the historical between March 07 and September 24, 2020 and; projected until October 28, 2021. Explaining that the lowest rate of infected will occur from June 30, 2021 β = 0.24. Evidence of an eradication prognosis for October 28, 2021 with a rate of infected (β = 0.21) and threshold (R0 = 0.03), in addition the accuracy of the model was quantified in 93.012%, with a 6.988% error COVID-19 mitigation mean percentage, with the temporal average value being R0 <1, so each person who contracts the disease will infect less than one person before dying or recovering, so the outbreak will disappear.
Keywords: infected, recovered, spread, mitigation, epidemiological threshold.
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